Twins Fire Gardenhire!

Gardy ejected

Gardy ejected – permanently!

The big surprise news for Minnesota Twins fans was the firing of manager Ron “Gardy” Gardenhire on Monday. In some ways the move was not surprising — the Twins have endured some of their worst seasons in the last four years, starting in 2011 when they came only one game short of losing 100 games. Even Gardy himself seems to agree the move is a good one, telling reporters, “I think this is the right thing.”

Gardenhire coached the Twins under former manager, Tom Kelly, from 1991 to 2001 and became their manager in 2002. That year the Twins made it all the way to the ALCS by beating the Oakland A’s, only to lose to the Anaheim Angels in five games. Since that time, Gardy brought the Twins to the post-season five times, but lost each time in the ALDS.

The surprise is more that Terry Ryan, the Twins GM, actually made such a bold move.

Ron Gardenhire

1,068 won; 1,039 lost.

It’s certainly a move some fans have been demanding for years. The perception of many is that Gardy, for all that he’s extremely well-liked, is just too old-school — even hide-bound — for modern baseball. Many have viewed his managerial actions as being too by the numbers and ignoring reality.

I know I’ve wondered about some of his decisions myself. I’m fairly new to the close study of baseball, so I’m no expert (I still can’t tell a slider from a cutter), but there have been times watching games I’ve thought, “Take him out; he’s out of gas!”

But Gardy often seems to wait until the pitcher has given up too many runs before taking action.

I’ve even wondered about his mind. As one ages, the mind slows down, even if you work to keep it sharp. As with muscles, (mental) exercise is crucial in maintaining (mental) strength and health. (As a great Jimmy Buffett song suggests, you should regularly use Mental Floss.)

Gardy MetsMy mom once said she thought she detected signs of my dad’s eventual collapse into Alzheimer’s decades before it became blatantly obvious his mind was going.  I don’t mean to suggest Gardenhire is suffering from any such form of dementia, but sometimes his gruffness when questioned about his decisions seems emblematic of others I’ve known who did.

Or it could just be that he’s a stubborn old coot who has been unable to adapt to the changing ways of baseball.

The thing is, while the move is highly visible and fan-appeasing, I’m not sure it gets to the root of the Twins’ real woes. I’m not at all sure the miserable performance of the Twins over the last four years was entirely his doing or fully under his control. There’s an old saying about making a silk purse from a sow’s ear (specifically that you can’t).

Rick Anderson

Rick Anderson phoning for a decent pitcher… any decent pitcher… somewhere…

My highly inexpert opinion has centered more on pitching coach, Rick Anderson. The Twins generally have good (or at least decent) fielding, and they’re fair-to-middling at the plate, but their pitching has been the major weak spot. (The new manager, whomever that is, will select the coaching staff going forward, so it’s very possible Anderson won’t be back.)

The problem is that the Twins persist in a pitching philosophy called “pitch to contact” as opposed to pitching for strike outs. The idea is allowing the batter to hit the ball and expecting defensive fielding to get the runner out.

But that doesn’t seem to work very well, at least not lately. Check out the Twins runs compared to the runs they give up over the last eight years:

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Twins 718 829 817 781 619 701 614 715
Opps 725 745 765 672 804 832 788 777
Δ -7 +84 +52 +109 -185 -131 -174 -62

Something has obviously gone very wrong in the last four years. In the first four years, the Twins were up 238 runs. In the last four, they’re down 552! Some combination of very bad pitching and/or very bad hitting is required to stink that much.

The question is whether it’s one or the other or both. A look at the pitching ERA (Earned Run Average) does show some decline in the last four years, but it doesn’t stand out to the degree the run differential does:

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SP 4.33 4.32 4.84 4.15 4.64 5.40 5.27 5.06
BP 3.87 3.91 3.87 3.48 4.51 3.79 3.46 3.73
Team 4.18 4.18 4.50 3.93 4.60 4.77 4.55 4.58

For the uninitiated, an ERA in the 3.00 range is acceptable, less is better (under 2.00 is really good; under 1.00 is ace-level). An ERA above 4.00 is awkward; above 5.00 is disastrous. (“SP” is Starting Pitchers, “BP” is Bull Pen, and “Team” combines the two.)

Here’s a look at their plate performance:

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
AVG .264 .279 .274 .273 .247 .260 .242 .253
OBP .330 .340 .345 .340 .306 .325 .312 .323
SLG .391 .408 .429 .421 .360 .390 .380 .389

Again the difference between the first four years and the last four isn’t as stark as the run differential, but you see decline here as well. The bottom line seems to be that the Twins have just been a crappy team these last four years.

Gardy disbelief

Watching the team lose. Again.

What remains to be seen is whether a new manager (and presumably at last some new coaches) really can make a difference. The thing is, the Twins did show definite signs of improvement this year, so if that continues next year, it might not have all that much to do with the change in management. It might just be the Twins finally climbing out of their hole.

So I have extremely mixed feelings about this. I almost (almost!) hope for another losing season just to make the point that what’s really at fault here is the GM and front office failing to put together a winning team.

Gardy tired

I just can’t watch!

But we really do need a winning season. It’s a “coincidence” remarked on by many that the Twins have stunk ever since they got their brand new ballpark, Target Field, in 2010.

And while it really is a beautiful venue, a common opinion is that the Metrodome gave the Twins a serious home field advantage. (That theory doesn’t really account for their successful year in 2010.)

The decline in the team’s fortunes is paralleled by a decline in Target Field attendance. The first year brought in capacity crowds, and the following year, 2011, wasn’t bad either. But attendance has slipped every year since:

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total 3,262,602 3,168,107 2,776,364 2,415,928 2,250,606
Average 39,787 39,112 34,276 30,581 27,785
Decline 97% 85% 74% 69%

Attendance is down over 30% since the place opened in 2010! The Twins claim the loss of hot dog sales isn’t the point, it’s all about losing games, but those two really are the same thing in most markets. (Cubs and Mets fans have their own special brand of loyalty for their typically hapless teams.)

Gardy so long

So long, Gardy! Fair seas and following winds!

And as a bonus, here’s (Cubs fan) Jimmy Buffett to play you out…

About Wyrd Smythe

The canonical fool on the hill watching the sunset and the rotation of the planet and thinking what he imagines are large thoughts. View all posts by Wyrd Smythe

6 responses to “Twins Fire Gardenhire!

  • Doobster418

    I was sad when the Sox dumped Terry Francona after the 2011 season (and the infamous September meltdown), and not at all happy when they brought in Bobby Valentine. I was thrilled that they dumped him after only one season. But I’m concerned that the new manager, John Farrell, is a one-hit-wonder. The Sox were amazing last year, but awful this year, his second season as manager. So we’ll see.

    It’s good to see someone else, besides me, who looks at and is analytical about the numbers.

    For what it’s worth, I’m not a Twins fan, but not because of the Twins per se. It’s because I grew up rooting for the Washington Senators. In 1960, Calvin Griffith, owner of the Senators, unceremoniously moved them to Minnesota and I was devastated. Sure, it’s been 54 years, but I am known to hold a grudge. I feel the same way about the Texas Rangers, since Bobby Short moved the then “New Senators” to Texas from DC just a few years later.

    • Wyrd Smythe

      [I’m watching the Royals pretty much give it up to the A’s, and I’m sad. I’m rootin’ Royals because they’re in my division and they haven’t been to the playoffs in 29 years. Doesn’t look to be much joy in Mudville tonight.]

      Yeah, that Valentine year was… interesting. (Bo-Sox would definitely be my favored AL East team.) Do you blame Farrell for the bad year, or was it other factors? (Consider the snake-bit Rangers this year. Another team that’s fallen from a pretty great height. In their case, though, it’s all about all those injuries.)

      I love baseball, and one of the many things I love about it is the stats. I was always a big data head, and I enjoy data mining and charts. I have a software suite I wrote for pulling MLB game data and creating various reports. Nothing I couldn’t find on dozens of stats sites, but I like mine my way (I like everything my way XD ), and I hate all those web site ads.

      I can understand your feelings about the Twins. Some grudges never die! I lived in Minneapolis from age five to 13, moved to Los Angeles, and then moved back in ’84. I have a major fond spot for the Dodgers, but I’m a true blue Twins fan. It’s just not an easy task.

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