Runaway Trump

runaway trumpAt this point it’s hard to see how Donald Trump doesn’t get the Republican nomination. He did well in Iowa (24.3%) and won handily in New Hampshire (35.3%),  South Carolina (32.5%), and Nevada (45.9%).

According to the Wiki GOP 2016 Primary page, as I write this, Trump has 32.72% of the votes cast so far, which gives him 82 delegates. The second-place pair, Rubio and Cruz, have about 20% of the votes each, which gives them 16 and 17 delegates, respectively.

The math is looking pretty good for Trump. It’s hard to see what slows down that train!

On the other hand, he does seem to top out at about 33% of voters. A candidate who got both Rubio’s and Cruz’s share would be beating him. But Trump has “the big mo” (momentum) and may well be unstoppable now.

I’m actually not all that concerned about The Donald. As a (mostly) successful businessman he’s likely pretty level-headed, and I very much suspect he’ll pivot more center once he gets the nomination.

Trump-1

Who is this guy?

If you listen to his words, you often hear what seems to be signals that he’s something of a centrist in conservative’s clothing.

Just today, speaking with Pat Robertson for CBN, he answered a question with a detour about uniting the divisions between “black and white” and between other groups in the USA.

Unfortunately, I don’t recall the question he was asked, or what other groups he cited (if I hear that bit in a clip, I’ll update this here parenthetical note with what he said).

What struck me was his apparent, possible, telegraphing of who he really is (or maybe I’m imagining it).

I was also struck by how subtlety on that level might escape the very ones it would dismay while it would be caught by the very people who are already dismayed. It’s possible his apparent growing popularity is due to conversions… people who were against him for  his overt behavior catching apparent wink-wink nudge-nudge signals.

Of course, the signals could be as false as the overt behavior, or I may be reading something that isn’t there. (Is anyone else who’s spent much time actually listening to him at length gotten any impressions like these?)

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Trump’s success is pretty clearly that he’s everything that anything tainted with the GOP isn’t. He’s the anti-GOP guy; he’s their guy. He talks like they do, like many of them are afraid to in “polite” company.

One point here is that a minority fraction of the USA wants things their way. That much applies to every political fraction (e.g. gender, race, creed, nationality, sport, profession,… you get the idea).

There is a very real question how much any fraction deserves (as a general rule, they should get their fraction), but what’s happened with the GOP electorate is a feeling of promises made and broken by previous candidates. That anger is what pushed John Boehner out of the House.

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It’s worth deconstructing what dismays many people about Donald Trump. One concern is that his policies may be as regressive as they seem. Another is that his bullying puts us in a bad light globally.

After all, the British did hold a debate (but no vote?) about whether to ban the man from their shores.

Trump-3

Potential First Lady.

A big concern is the perception he isn’t presidential, that he’s too vulgar to represent the USA.

(Do you realize that, if he wins, there will be some very sexy (already existing) pictures of the First Lady?)

I would suggest, however, that American — in good part due to our beloved national opiates, TV and the interweb — culture has “sunk” (and the term is, I admit, debatable) to the point that Donald Trump exactly represents America.

My own concern has to do with my notions of leadership. I look for leaders to lead from the top, not the bottom. Organizational charts usually put the top person at the top. Even their offices are often symbolically on the top floor.

I believe leaders should elevate those they lead. They should appeal to our better angels and ideas, not our darker demons and fears.

Ultimately leaders make the group they lead successful, by some agreed on definition of success. Perhaps a president Trump can do that. Maybe an aggressive win-oriented businessman at the helm is what we need right now.

train derail

This is a test!

It actually might be interesting to see, but I wish we had a virtual reality simulator where we could test that future to see what happens.

One attraction for the idea that we’re already in a virtual reality is that, if such a thing were possible, this would be a perfect use for it — to test political scenarios.

For all we really know, we are in just such a test. One designed to see if someone like Trump can win.

And, at the moment, unless something derails that train — and it’s hard to see what could at this point — he sure looks like a runaway winner.

Thirteen states vote or caucus on March 1, and that may change the equation. If it doesn’t, I think we can expect the Trump train to reach the station well ahead of the others.

Then it gets really interesting!

At least there’s this: Baseball is coming! The players have reported for Spring Training. Opening Day is April 4 (which is also Square Root Day).

Batter up!

About Wyrd Smythe

The canonical fool on the hill watching the sunset and the rotation of the planet and thinking what he imagines are large thoughts. View all posts by Wyrd Smythe

7 responses to “Runaway Trump

  • Wyrd Smythe

    And for that matter, the potential First Daughter:

  • dianasschwenk

    The man scares me Smitty, but then again, I’m a sweet, soft-hearted, bleeding Canadian liberal. ❤
    Diana xo

    • Wyrd Smythe

      I think your reaction is a common one, and one I shared and still share sometimes. I’m just not sure what to make of him.

      I’ve always thought there was more going on than met the eye. It would make a good novel if he was a plant by the Democratic party or the Hillary campaign. Now I wonder if he just saw a path to the presidency through the fragmented GOP.

      Oh, what I wouldn’t give for a good virtual reality simulator!

  • Lady from Manila

    Mitt Romney, the ex-nominee who didn’t make it because he looks more like a villain from a bad 80’s movie is going for the jugular by bringing up Trump’s income tax returns. Recent news divulges the anti-Trumps are regrouping once more to bring down the presidential frontrunner.

    The question is, how come the majority, so far in this race, could discern Trump is not at all a bad man and chose to trust him with the future of the nation? The premise they’re all ignorant and gullible and just plain simpletons has gotten old.

    • Wyrd Smythe

      All those who oppose him keep looking for Trump’s kryptonite, but so far he dodged insulting women, insulting the disabled, insulting Mexicans, insulting Islam, insulting Bush43, and insulting the Pope. Maybe his tax returns have a lurking atom bomb in them, but it may not matter to his supporters.

      There’s also mention of that the money he raised for veterans. It was said we don’t know what happened to that money. I don’t see that turning into anything, but I do wonder why he isn’t bragging about what he did with all those millions. Likewise people wonder why he isn’t bragging about his tax returns.

      The reality show continues! Stay tuned for the next exciting episode!

      The thing is his supporters don’t think he is a bad man (I’m not convinced he isn’t just playing one on TV — he’s certainly capable of being very nice). They believe he’s just doing what it takes to win, and they’re so angry they’re beyond caring about party politics. They just wanna win.

      They really don’t care who he is except that he seems to be a winner (and not a politician of any kind and, especially, not talking like one).

      • Lady from Manila

        Pretty photos, btw. You must have seen the shot of a topless and heavily-pregnant Melania as Donald was waiting inside a DeLorean for her which was taken by Annie Lebovitz (I believe) many years back. And oooh, I wasn’t aware Ivanka is that well-endowed 🙂 . But wait, Wyrd, both women used to be top-tier models and that justifies those images.

        Yes, I’ve read about all the things that’s been shooting off Trump’s mouth and I’m baffled as well how he’s able to get away with it all. Then I read a couple of days ago when a supporter had been asked why he was choosing the billionaire candidate, and his pure answer was “I just like him.” That could very well explain, too, my unremitting regard for the man.

        There’s still this probability the GOP will push Marco Rubio down the Republican voters’ throats anyway. And I’d rather see Trump lose than him getting physically harmed by his opponents as a way to prevent his chances.

      • Wyrd Smythe

        No, I never saw any pregnancy photos, but I have an active disinterest in the doings of the rich and-or famous. The question isn’t whether the photos were justified — that’s a whole other conversation — but what effect they have (if any) on the putative future leader of the free world.

        The irony is that he’s a Republican candidate, the very party that’s supposed to care more about stuff like that. The whole thing is revealing the hypocrisy of the GOP and its electorate: Win at any cost! Damn the principles; full speed ahead!

        As I’ve said repeatedly here this is absolutely a popularity contest by a popular reality TV show star riding a wave of nationalism and populism. As I’ve also said I think Trump might be fooling his supporters who are only looking at all the razzle dazzle. Trump doesn’t concern me nearly as much as his supporters do! They kinda scare me (for reasons I’ve expressed repeatedly here).

        “And I’d rather see Trump lose than him getting physically harmed by his opponents as a way to prevent his chances.”

        If you’re serious, you’ve been watching too many movies. 🙂 The GOP tried to ram Jeb Bush (and others… anyone but Trump) down voter’s throats. Spent millions of dollars doing it. Didn’t work. At all!

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