At this point it’s hard to see how Donald Trump doesn’t get the Republican nomination. He did well in Iowa (24.3%) and won handily in New Hampshire (35.3%), South Carolina (32.5%), and Nevada (45.9%).
According to the Wiki GOP 2016 Primary page, as I write this, Trump has 32.72% of the votes cast so far, which gives him 82 delegates. The second-place pair, Rubio and Cruz, have about 20% of the votes each, which gives them 16 and 17 delegates, respectively.
The math is looking pretty good for Trump. It’s hard to see what slows down that train!
On the other hand, he does seem to top out at about 33% of voters. A candidate who got both Rubio’s and Cruz’s share would be beating him. But Trump has “the big mo” (momentum) and may well be unstoppable now.
I’m actually not all that concerned about The Donald. As a (mostly) successful businessman he’s likely pretty level-headed, and I very much suspect he’ll pivot more center once he gets the nomination.
If you listen to his words, you often hear what seems to be signals that he’s something of a centrist in conservative’s clothing.
Just today, speaking with Pat Robertson for CBN, he answered a question with a detour about uniting the divisions between “black and white” and between other groups in the USA.
Unfortunately, I don’t recall the question he was asked, or what other groups he cited (if I hear that bit in a clip, I’ll update this here parenthetical note with what he said).
What struck me was his apparent, possible, telegraphing of who he really is (or maybe I’m imagining it).
I was also struck by how subtlety on that level might escape the very ones it would dismay while it would be caught by the very people who are already dismayed. It’s possible his apparent growing popularity is due to conversions… people who were against him for his overt behavior catching apparent wink-wink nudge-nudge signals.
Of course, the signals could be as false as the overt behavior, or I may be reading something that isn’t there. (Is anyone else who’s spent much time actually listening to him at length gotten any impressions like these?)
Trump’s success is pretty clearly that he’s everything that anything tainted with the GOP isn’t. He’s the anti-GOP guy; he’s their guy. He talks like they do, like many of them are afraid to in “polite” company.
One point here is that a minority fraction of the USA wants things their way. That much applies to every political fraction (e.g. gender, race, creed, nationality, sport, profession,… you get the idea).
There is a very real question how much any fraction deserves (as a general rule, they should get their fraction), but what’s happened with the GOP electorate is a feeling of promises made and broken by previous candidates. That anger is what pushed John Boehner out of the House.
It’s worth deconstructing what dismays many people about Donald Trump. One concern is that his policies may be as regressive as they seem. Another is that his bullying puts us in a bad light globally.
After all, the British did hold a debate (but no vote?) about whether to ban the man from their shores.
A big concern is the perception he isn’t presidential, that he’s too vulgar to represent the USA.
(Do you realize that, if he wins, there will be some very sexy (already existing) pictures of the First Lady?)
I would suggest, however, that American — in good part due to our beloved national opiates, TV and the interweb — culture has “sunk” (and the term is, I admit, debatable) to the point that Donald Trump exactly represents America.
My own concern has to do with my notions of leadership. I look for leaders to lead from the top, not the bottom. Organizational charts usually put the top person at the top. Even their offices are often symbolically on the top floor.
I believe leaders should elevate those they lead. They should appeal to our better angels and ideas, not our darker demons and fears.
Ultimately leaders make the group they lead successful, by some agreed on definition of success. Perhaps a president Trump can do that. Maybe an aggressive win-oriented businessman at the helm is what we need right now.
It actually might be interesting to see, but I wish we had a virtual reality simulator where we could test that future to see what happens.
One attraction for the idea that we’re already in a virtual reality is that, if such a thing were possible, this would be a perfect use for it — to test political scenarios.
For all we really know, we are in just such a test. One designed to see if someone like Trump can win.
And, at the moment, unless something derails that train — and it’s hard to see what could at this point — he sure looks like a runaway winner.
Thirteen states vote or caucus on March 1, and that may change the equation. If it doesn’t, I think we can expect the Trump train to reach the station well ahead of the others.
Then it gets really interesting!
At least there’s this: Baseball is coming! The players have reported for Spring Training. Opening Day is April 4 (which is also Square Root Day).