2024: Looking Ahead

The other face of Janus looks forward to the Christmases yet to come. Or words to that effect. The last post looked back at some highlights from 2023; this one looks forward to the hopes, plans, and guesses for 2024.

Hopes and plans are easy enough, but when it comes to guesses, I’ve never thought much of futurists. I don’t have much truck with “could” and “might” when it comes to the actual world. Science fiction is my favorite fiction, but futurists claim to be prescient, and I very much doubt it.

Regardless (and heedless), some hopes, plans, and wild-ass guesses, for 2024.

Writing this post, I looked at the Janus pairs from previous years. While I’ve usually commemorated the year change one way or another here, the Janus pairs don’t begin until 2020 with End of the Teens (looking back at twenty-teens) and 2020 Vision. I hadn’t yet locked in on the backward-forward notion. The first post, published on 2019-12-31, is more of a New Year’s Eve Day thing, while the second post both reviews the stats and expresses hopes about 2020.

That latter post includes my recurring themes of remembering looking forward to 1984 (because of the notorious book from 1949) and how 2001 (because of the beautiful movie from 1968) seemed the distant future.

Those are certainly observations on the sad fact that I’m getting old but more they’re about how the world turned out neither as dystopic nor utopic as those stories suggested. (Instead, it found a different path to unique blend of Heaven and Hell.) That post mentions a 2006 movie that anticipated much of what we’re experiencing today socially. I posted about the movie back in 2014. The President Camacho character now seems horrifically on-the-nose.

[One thing the movie misses (because prescience is hard) is the harm done by modern social media. Recent studies have made clear that, while internet use in general isn’t detrimental, social media has been catastrophic to the mental health of young people. It generates serious anxiety connected with FOMO and representing, which can in some cases lead to self-harm, even suicide. Social media is bad, m’kay?]

Other than the stats and charts (and explaining my “gap year” of 2016), that was pretty much it for looking forward. I did forecast more posts about the Mandelbrot and some ultra-precision code I was working on. As it turned out, I posted a follow-up later that month. The planned Mandelbrot March (or May) ended up being more about complex numbers and the complex plane but finished with a look at The Heart of the Mandelbrot.

[Ironically, of the four posts, it was the supplemental post, Imaginary Parabola, that went on to attract the most views: 405 total (ranking #51 overall) with increases each year since it was published (56, 81, 126, 142). In contrast, the final post only has 70 total views, while the numbers post has 69 and the one about the plane only 11. Just goes to show you, I guess.]

As it turned out, that was largely the end of the Mandelbrot posts. It was on my mind around 2019 and 2020, but I ended up moving on to other projects. I would like to return to the Mandelbrot set, though. It does continue to fascinate me. Maybe I’ll return to it in 2024.

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I realize I’m actually looking backwards here, but I’m looking backwards at looking forwards, if you can parse that. Reviewing my previous looking forwards. Checking my score, so to speak. (Because prescience is hard. Even the most predictable can be unpredictable.)

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In 2021 I asked What About 2021? I closed out the year with another New Year’s Eve Day post, Whither 2020? I had some fun with the lede images, the old man looking back (left) and the amusingly sitting dog looking forward (right). In the years that followed, I stuck with the two-faced stone bust of Janus (used in the lede here).

In the first post I recalled the desolation of COVID-19 (and reiterated the lament of aging). And celebrated the end of four years of surreal politics. Silly me, I thought it was, at long last, over. Little did I know.

In 2020, I’d also dig into quantum computing, gotten an account on the IBM Quantum Platform, and actually designed and run a (super simple) quantum algorithm on an honest-to-gosh quantum computer. And then lost interest.

[I just tested my account there. After being forced to change my password, jump through several security hoops and agreements… my account is still active. I’m not sure I’ve learned enough about QC to pick up where I left off, but it might be fun to dabble with it again in 2024.]

In the second post, looking forward at 2021, I emphasized my disgust with the myriad forms of social bullshit. I’d introduced the topic at the end of 2020 in Our BS Culture. It was a theme I’d return to repeatedly — I see it as a major problem throughout our culture. I call it FBS for short. The polite expansion is Fantasy Bullshit, but there is a more accurate, if less polite, expansion.

I wrote that second post on January 5. The next day, writing a new post…

As I write this Congress started the electoral vote counting process, and almost immediately stalled when the unamerican from Arizona objected. Fucking republican bullshit stinks so bad. Unbelievable to me that human minds can sink so low.

And near the end of the post…

So now these assholes are storming the Capital egged on by Twitler. The parallels to pre-WWII Germany continue; one more example of how far this country has fallen. I’m too distracted by this fucked up bullshit to focus on writing.

To my continuing astonishment, home-grown terrorists stormed and invaded the Capitol with desecration and murder on (what passes for) their minds.

The post I was writing at the time was part of my Wednesday Wow series. Very appropriate, wow, indeed. But the bad kind of wow. The one usually followed by “That sucks!” or “That’s messed up!”

How did we sink that far? It’s embarrassing.

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By 2022 the Janus notion had solidified into a pair of related posts published in early January, one looking at the previous year, one looking at the coming year.

The first one, descriptively titled Blog Stats 2021, had lots of charts and stats. It started off with a review of the year but, as it points out, most of the “heavy lifting of the look back” was done in the previous New Year’s Eve Day post. Generally speaking, 2021 seemed a weird kind of non-year. COVID was still shutting us down, and we almost seemed to be catching our breath after the four years of P45 and the attack on Capitol he fomented.

The second one, So Now It’s 2022, indicates that I hadn’t fully embraced the two-post notion and that the second post was more from not being able to fit both back and fore views into one post. I celebrated the successful launch of the James Webb Space Telescope and looked forward to the science it would return starting in 2022. (And, wow, did it ever!)

That post also mentioned Alastair Reynolds, a science fiction author I was looking forward to exploring in 2022. As it turned out, I decided I didn’t care for his stories. It didn’t take long. I posted Bova, Stephenson, Reynolds in late February and Reynolds, Bova (redux) in March. I haven’t read him since, but last August I decided to give his Chasm City (2001) a chance. It wasn’t too bad. I think he’s best when he limits himself in scope and length.

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Last year, 2023, has the Janus pair 2022: I Hardly Knew Ya and 2023: Now What? Because I was hosting my furry nephew Bentley over that New Year’s, there’s a December 29 post, 2022: It’s a Wrap, which wasn’t a wrap of anything but a very brief early New Year’s post saying I’d be busy with Bentley until early January (it was a bit like my short New Year’s Day post saying much the same).

I mentioned yesterday that this year’s Janus pair wasn’t as late as I thought because the pair in 2023 were posted only a day earlier (14th and 15th versus 15th and 16th). Last year, though, I posted 2023: I’m Not Ready! on the 7th. It was mostly about the big snowstorm we’d had. Fortunately, so far this year we’ve dodged that bullet.

The look back post was what I’d expect from me in this context. I sense between the lines the growing calm I’d achieved after ten years of retirement. Some of it is a greater acceptance of what is and some letting go of what ought to be. More of it is just not having to deal with nearly all of the bullshit anymore. And I’m old enough to have the luxury of not giving a shit anymore, either. Life now is largely the payoff for what I put into it all those decades.

The look forward post also seems softer than I might have written it in the past. Not that things are better — to the contrary! — but removing myself from most of it reduces the sharp edge of rage. Maybe I’m mellowing in my old age. Or just tired of being angry at shit I can’t change. Or just tired. There is, I think, in the post a sense of the futility of it all.

Very Zen to just accept, but I don’t think it wise to go too far with that. Progress (good or bad) comes from dissatisfaction.

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Which brings me to 2024 and the looking forward post of this year’s Janus pair.

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I mentioned global warming yesterday. If you didn’t follow the link to the NOAA page about 2023 being the warmest year since 1850, you should do it now. Sapere aude! (You can continue this after you change your shorts.)

It strikes me that part of the blame must lie with electrical world. Ever since we harnessed electricity, we’ve consumed more and more of the stuff. The Computer Revolution seriously increased our consumption, mobile and wireless devices even more so.

Large computing centers consume both electricity and water (for cooling). Computers run hot because their operation involves trillions of tiny brief short circuits. In particular, two types of computing are energy hogs: AI training and cryptocurrency mining.

The AI Revolution currently involves serious energy consumption, something that may be a limiting factor for its future. New kinds of technology may reduce consumption, but current technology hogs it.

Note that AI use doesn’t use any more energy than normal computer use. It’s the training of an AI that requires massive compute resources. Another issue with training involves the source of the training data and possible copyright infringement.

[Speaking of cryptocurrency mining, Bitcoin might experience government intervention to get them to stop using so much electricity and water. (Something that might also concern AI trainers.) Blockchain mining has other options that don’t use so much energy, but Bitcoin steadfastly refuses to consider them and apparently even considers it a feature.]

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Closer to home, this blog. I suspect the rate of posting will remain low. Unless I get inspired. There will be more math (and quantum stuff), of course. There’s a post about dividing by zero already in the works, and I want to get back to the Schrödinger Equation. I’ve long intended a post about music harmony basics, but the series John Baez is doing covers everything I could and much more. Maybe a simple overview with links to document his series.

I don’t see myself as a reviewer of popular media, but things that stand out, good or bad, can inspire me to post about them. [See the Book Reviews and Movies Reviews lists.] I most enjoy sharing the more obscure (but good) movies or shows (or, rarely, books) that most might miss. Stuff off the beaten path. Gems.

My backlog of notes has grown small. I might finally catch up with myself. It would be nice to not have any backlog at all. Might be doable in 2024 if I put my mind to it. Or I could just throw away a lot of the remaining notes.

I’m not a futurist or a big planner. Life has taught me it’s fruitless. Bridge rivers when you come to them. (And as an old saying goes, “Life is uncertain. Eat dessert first.”)

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My literary dance card isn’t full for 2024. I’ve queued another Lawrence Block series (Evan Tanner) and more Maurice Leblanc books about master thief Arsène Lupin. I’m also looking into the “cozy police procedural” books by Catherine Aird, her Calleshire Chronicles series (starring Detective Inspector C.D. Sloan).

I’m very much looking forward to reading more of the Murderbot Diaries series by Martha Wells. I read the first book, All Systems Red (2017), last November, loved it, and I’ve had the second book, Artificial Condition (2018), on hold at the library ever since (my app says ~10 weeks wait still).

I’m considering the Remembrance of Earth’s Past trilogy (2006-2010) by Liu Cixin. The first novel, The Three-Body Problem (2006), has apparently been adapted to an upcoming series on Netflix. I read his novel Ball Lightning and thought it okay.

I may also finally read The Peripheral (2014) by William Gibson. It has an adaptation on Amazon Prime, though I haven’t checked it out. (But Gibson takes so much effort to read, and I’m so tired of dystopic SF futures. We’re in our own dystopia, so maybe not.)

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Jumping to TV, I mentioned yesterday that I’m very disappointed by season two of Reacher. The final episode drops on the 19th. Posting about it may be my first rant of 2024. Damn it.

Netflix: The Brothers Sun was fun. Looking forward to a season two. Not sure if there will be a Lupin, part four. Parta three wrapped up the immediate narrative arc but left the door open for more. My Netflix queue is finally getting small, allowing me to explore new things (already added some to check out soon).

Amazon Prime: Wish they’d bring back The Avengers. I didn’t get to watch all of them. And Farscape. Want to watch that one again someday. I like Amazon for Asian films and weird old Hollywood and Indie ‘B’ movies. Some really goofy old SF flicks.

Hulu: Only Murders in the Building has kinda worn out its welcome with me. (Reservation Dogs ended last year.) Solar Opposites takes too long for too little. Waiting for Rick and Morty season seven! Grown-ish will end its run.

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Generally speaking, I expect 2024 will contain the same muddling through it all as previous years. Our society is obviously broken, but it’s too big to fix. All most of us can do is enjoy the popcorn and try to keep our little space nice. Pick up our toys, signal our turns, bus our trays, clean up our messes, and shower regularly.

I’m very much looking forward to the Equinox and spring. Winter gets old and tired quickly when you’re old and tired. Naps are in the forecast.

Stay warm, my friends! Go forth and spread beauty and light.

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