MN Twins: Not Great

From this blog’s beginning in 2011 until the end of the 2019 season, I’ve written about the Minnesota Twins. But not so much since. One post in 2020, about the COVID-shortened season. One more in 2021, about how I seemed to have moved past baseball. That was pretty much it until this year.

A number of things changed this year, and for the first time since 2019, I’ve been watching Twins games.

Unfortunately, they aren’t having a good year.

As I write this, they are 58-68 (.460) on the season. Ten games below .500 and in fourth place in the Division — 16.5 games behind the current lead, the Tigers (who’ve been having a very good season).

The Twins had a rough start to the season, going 13-14 (.481) in April. But in May they got hot — 18-8 (.692) — and it seemed like it might be a good season after all. (Oddly, their run differential was good in both months: +27 and +26, respectively.) They won 13 games in a row from May 3rd to the 17th, finally losing the last game in the Brewers series.

[“Front Row Amy” still shows up to Brewers games.]

At the time, it was exciting enough that I made them the lead story in that month’s Friday Notes post. (That post also gets into why I’m watching baseball again.)

In June, their fortunes turned. Horrifically. They went 9-18 (.333) with a run differential of -45. Painful to watch. Notably higher errors-rate in April and June: 17 and 15, respectively, compared to 10 in May. Their hit differential was -35, so they weren’t hitting, let alone scoring.

July showed some improvement, 11-13 (.458), and the run differential was only -9. But the hit differential was still awful: -31. They were leaving a lot of players on base, too. They were still in the race, but increasingly far behind.

Again, they made the lead story in that month’s Friday Notes, but the story had an entirely different tone to it. Two bad months had wiped away their gains from May.

Now, more than halfway through August, it’s clear they’re no longer contenders. So far, they’re 7-11 (.389) on the month with a run differential of -9 (and a hit differential of -22 — still flailing at the plate).

They have yet to score more than 12 runs in a game (which they did three times), while opponents have scored 13 (once), 14 (once), 16 (twice), and 17 (once) runs against them.

[12:05 CDT] The Twins are five minutes from first pitch in the last game of the series hosting the Athletics. They lost Tuesday and Wednesday, so the best they can hope for today is to not get swept.

In their previous two series, at Yankees (8-11 to 8-13) and at home hosting the Tigers (8-14 to 8-17), they only won a single game in each. The last game, as it happens, so there’s some hope they’ll win the last game of this series.

[But I’m not holding my breath.]

In the 2010s, the Twins struggled for good pitching. In particular — in large part due to their “pitch to contact” philosophy — they lacked for strikeout pitchers. While I haven’t watched the Twins in the 2020s until this year, it’s clear that philosophy has changed. It’s wonderful to see Twins pitchers striking out batters.

Our current ace pitcher, Joe Ryan (#41), after 25 games, 563 batters faced, is sporting a very tasty ERA of 2.77 and an equally tasty WHIP of 0.94. His strikeout rate is 28.2%, and his walk rate is only 5.0%. (Rates are percentage of batters faced.). His hit rate is also nice: only 19.0%.

In contrast, Bailey Ober (#17), after 21 games, 491 batters faced, sports an ERA of 5.05 and a WHIP of 1.32. His strikeout rate is 18.9%, but his walk rate is comparable to Ryan’s: 5.1%. He has a hit rate of 25.5%, so he’s giving up hits to ¼ of the batters he faces.

If they ever get Pedro López (#49) back — he’s been on the Injured List since June 11 — he could up their game. From the eleven games he pitched (247 batters faced), he has a 2.82 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He was Ryan’s Rival with stats like that.

Zebby Matthews (#52) was supposed to be a hot ticket, but after ten games (211 batters faced), he sports an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.44. He’s a strikeout monster, with a 29.9% strikeout rate (contrasted with a low 7.1% walk rate), but his hit rate is 25.6% — as with Ober, he gives up hits to ¼ of the batters he faces.

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[12:22 CDT] Score is 0-0 after one inning, but I’d have to rank the Twins as already behind. Our pitcher, José Ureña, made a throwing error to first (so already one error on the game) and gave up a single. Four batters made contact (two flyouts, a putout, and the single on error). But at the bottom of the inning, the Twins went down 1-2-3 (but all three did make contact). Here in the top of the second, Ureña is struggling. Hit one batter and gave up a single. He’s got runners on first and second with two outs.

And now he’s walked a guy, the fifth batter this inning, filling the bases.

And now a long fly to left field, and three runs score. Now a long hit to left center and another run scores. Ureña’s pitch count is blowing up (41 and still hasn’t gotten that elusive third out). The 44th pitch just went wild, letting the running advance to third. A single will likely score another run. And Ureña walks another, the eighth batter — runners in the corners now.

And the ninth batter hits to left center, another run scores. The tenth batter does also, and it’s 0-6. Ureña has pretty much lost the game for us. Given how cold the Twins bats are, it’s unlikely they can catch up.

[12:42 CDT] The painful top of the second finally ends — the eleventh (!) batter hits fly that’s finally caught — with the Twins behind. Now it’s up to the Twins to answer.

The Twins go down 1-2-3 in the second with two flyouts and a strikeout. It’s getting to the point of wondering whether this game is even worth watching. I suppose, unless it gets seriously worse, I’ll leave it on in the background.

[12:50 CDT] Ureña is back out for the third. Started by striking out the lead batter. Maybe he’s found himself. In his defense, the Athletics are really hot right now after a slow start. (They certainly found themselves. If only the Twins could.) Second batter grounds out, so maybe this won’t get worse. But now they need that third out against Nick Kurtz, who has been a beast.

Luckily, he grounds out, and Ureña has his first 1-2-3 inning. I suppose also in Ureña’s defense, he’s bounced around a lot this season and only pitched 12 games. He started with the Mets (one game), spent six games playing for the Blue Jays, then two games with the Dodgers, and now he’s throwing his third game for the Twins.

Speaking of player transactions, the Twins kind of got gutted in the July trades. They traded Jorge Alcalá on June 11 — fine, he was hot and cold (currently a 6.14 ERA, so pretty cold). But then they traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers (July 28). Two days later, traded Jhoan Duran — our fast-throwing closer — to the Phillies.

[13:03 CDT] Twins in the bottom third still flailing. strikeout, a walk — getting a man on base — but then flyout and lineout to end the inning. Leaving the runner on base, something that’s happened far too often this season.

The real gutting came on July 31st, when they traded:

1. Willi Castro to the Cubs
2. Carlos Correa to the Astros
3. Harrison Bader to the Phillies
4. Danny Coulombe to the Rangers
5. Griffin Jax to the Rays
6. Brock Stewart to the Dodgers
7. Ty France to the Blue Jays
8. Louis Varland to the Blue Jays

I’d gotten to like some of those guys. I especially miss Bader, Correa, and France.

[13:13 CDT] Trevor Larnach (#9; who I think looks a bit like Pedro Pascal) just got a no-out double in the bottom fourth, so maybe the Twins will make some noise here. On the other hand, given their performance this season, it’s more likely that even with no outs, they’ll leave him on base.

On the other, other hand, the second batter just walked, so now runners on first and second with no outs. In theory, they should be able to at least score a run and get on the board. So did the third batter, so now bases are loaded with no outs. The chances of at least one run are even higher, but this is the Twins, so let’s see what happens…

Kody Clemens (son of the great Roger Clemens) grounds into a force out at home. Royce Lewis pops out, James Outman singles, and Brooks Lee scores. Austin Martin singles, Luke Keaschall scores, but then Clemens is out at home. So, seven batters, bases loaded with no outs, and only two score.

[13:35 CDT] Middle fifth, it’s 2-6, game is half over.

[14:04 CDT] Oops! I accidentally clicked the [Publish] button rather than the [Save Draft] button. I’ve always hated how easy WordPress makes that to do, but I thought I’d finally overcome my tendency to do so. In any event, still watching the game and working on this post! Come back later today for the final version.

[14:41 CDT] Twins about the enter the bottom of the nine down 2-8. The Athletics picked up two more runs, one in the 6th, one in the 7th. Clemens leads off with a single…

And scores on a double from Lewis. The outfielder caught the ball, but it bounced out of his glove into the wall, and even though he grabbed it again before it hit the ground, the catch doesn’t count because the ball is “live” if it touches the ground or wall.

Outman and Martin strike out, and the Twins are down to their last out and five runs behind. They only need six runs to walk this off. 😁

[14:54 CDT] Mickey Gasper flies out to end the game. Twins lose 3-8 and are swept at home by the (formerly Oakland) Athletics.

As an aside, the A’s are moving to Las Vegas, and I’m not okay with that. I seriously not okay with the rise of gambling in baseball, so I’m not sure the gambling capitol of the USA should have a baseball team. Just seems wrong to me, somehow. Of all the changes the MLB has made to keep baseball alive against the raucous furor of an impatient modern culture stoned to the gills on simplistic shallow flash, gambling is the one I’d eliminate.

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The bottom line is that the Twins are doing poorly in just about every stat you can name. Oddly, despite the way it feels, they have the 8th fewest LOB — Left On Base. Only 843.

[15:00 CDT] Th-th-th-th-That’s all for today folks.

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Stay slugging, my friends! Go forth and spread beauty and light.

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